DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY OF POPULATION. The population theory of demographic transition theory is the latest attempt made to provide a historical analysis of the population problems of developing countries.
The Demographic Transition Theory is a conceptual framework used to explain the historical and ongoing changes in population trends observed in many countries around the world. It describes the process of population change from a pre-industrial society with high birth and death rates to an industrialized society with low birth and death rates.
The theory was first proposed by Warren Thompson in 1929 and has since been refined and expanded by various demographers. It is based on the observation that societies tend to go through a consistent pattern of demographic change as they develop economically and socially. The theory is typically divided into four stages, although some versions may include additional transitional stages:
Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Stage In this stage, both birth rates and death rates are high, resulting in a relatively stable population size. The high birth rates are necessary to offset the high mortality rates due to factors such as epidemics, famine, and poor living conditions. The population growth rate remains low or stagnant during this stage.
Stage 2: Transitional Stage oDuring this stage, the society undergoes economic and social development, often associated with industrialization. While death rates decline significantly due to improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and living standards, birth rates remain high. This leads to a rapid population growth rate, as the number of births surpasses the number of deaths.
Stage 3: Industrial Stage In this stage, society becomes fully industrialized, and there is a further decline in birth rates. Factors such as increased access to contraception, urbanization, education, and the changing roles of women contribute to lower fertility rates. The population growth rate begins to slow down, and the population reaches a more stable size.
Stage 4: Post-Industrial Stage of population theory: In the final stage, both birth rates and death rates are low, resulting in a near-zero population growth rate or even population decline. This stage is characterized by an aging population, with a higher proportion of elderly individuals. Factors such as increased life expectancy, improved healthcare for the elderly, and changing social norms contribute to low birth rates.
It is important to note that not all countries progress through these stages in the same way or at the same pace. Some countries may experience a rapid demographic transition within a few decades, while others may go through a slower and more extended process. Additionally, the theory has been criticized for oversimplifying the complex factors that influence population change, such as cultural, economic, and political dynamics, this is based on fabioclass concept and if you have doubts concerning the content of this post please feel free to leave your comment using the comment box
It tends to explain the reasons why all developed countries several years ago went through three identical stages of population history.
The demographic transition theory puts up a model which recognizes three main stages in the process of population growth or demographic transition.
The three stages are:
Stage I: The pre-industrialization stage
The main feature of this stage is high birth rate and high death rate. The population at this stage is either static or increasing or decreasing at a very low rate. The population transition remains fairly stable.
Stage II: Transitional stage
This stage is characterized By a high birth rate. accompanied by a low death rate. This stage leads to high population as a result of a number of factors such as industrialization, urbanization, better diet, higher income and improved medical services.
This stage marks the beginning of the demographic transition. Many developing countries are currently at this stage of population growth.
Stage III: Post-transitional stage of THEORY OF POPULATION
This stage is characterized by a low birth rate and low death rate. In other words, there is a relatively stable population with an older and larger population. This stage is associated with developed countries.
Criticism against demographic transition
- It is completely wrong to use the theory for general applications as it varies from one country to another.
- The crude birth rate widely used in the theory is not the only way to measure fertility.
- The main causes of the decline in population may be different in different countries.
- It fails to predict the levels of birth rate and death rate.
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